Posts by Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, please accept that I simply do not agree that any extrapolation should ever have been done whether conservative or not for reasons that have been well-aired throughout this thread.”

Steve2,

I accept that you disagree with my conclusions.

I don’t see any viable objections from you or anyone else in this discussion that are unaccounted for or that undermine the conclusion I’ve offered. Specifically, you fail to offer any evidence that I’ve assumed things that would in any way whatsoever inflate a value that we all know exists.

What I have witnessed in this discussion is a lot of whining by folks who have yet to address the core feature of my extrapolation.

“I have considered your answers to my objections and I am struck by the naivete of the continued arguments that you have used to justify the extrapolation in the first place which led to my use of the adjective "stubborn".”

I’ve considered what you’ve had to say, too. And, not that it matters, but I’ve bothered myself to respond exhaustively to your complaints. At this point I’m left wondering if you’re attempt is no more than trying to waste my time. You’ve ignored substance at every turn. So be it. Readers will make of this discussion what they will, which is as it should be.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“That a researcher can navigate the mountainous barriers to sound research findings and make it all seem so plausible and be so untroubeld by it speaks to the caliber of the researcher.”

Steve2

Barriers to my extrapolation occur in one fashion: factors that require either 1) hard data or 2) assumption.

Where I had hard data I used hard data.

Where I did not have hard data I assumed as conservatively as possible.

If that should trouble me then I’ll eat your hat.

“There comes a time when critics need to call it quits and hope and trust readers can make up their own minds about whether the research and its conclusions are sound. It is an example of, not so much the type of scholastic dishonesty we find in Watchtower publications but more likely stubborn scholastic naivete in which the researcher has failed to grasp the fundamentals of sound research design, methodology and conclusions.”

Stubborn?

I’ve asked and asked you and other whiners to point out where I’ve made an assumption that fails to favor a conservative extrapolation. You complain and complain. But when it gets right down to it that’s all you’re doing.

There comes a time when researchers need to call it quits and hope and trust that readers can and will decide for themselves whether a piece of research and its conclusions are sound. When critics fail to answer relevant questions then those critics have become whiners.

Readers will decided as they will, which is as it should be.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“So to extrapolate from ANY study that is conducted in NZ is not "conservative" if you're not accounting for the inflating effect of the relatively lower age of consent New Zealanders "enjoy" (I put the word in brackets, as to have the right to die for Jehovah at the age 17 is NOT much of a right to "enjoy") vs the rest of the World.”

Adamah,

I fail to see your point. In each case a JW patient with “severe anemia” objected to red cell transfusion and either lived or died.

Age does not change that.

If age does not change that then the body count at work in my extrapolation remains solid.

“Furthermore, you need to subtract from the 7.4 mil Worldwide JW figure those who are actually minors (and hence would be protected by the varying laws that exist in their different countries); otherwise you don't KNOW how many minors are included in that total figure, and that's ALSO a source of inflated numbers; not accounting for those who'd be saved by Court Order.

“Did you consider and/or do that? If not, then your figure is not as "conservative" as you might tell yourself.”

I don’t think you understand the math at work in my extrapolation.

Were I to do as you say it would only increase the mortality rate suffered by JWs for refusing blood. The fact that my extrapolation does not do as you suggest makes my extrapolation a firm understatement.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

Adamah,

When I say it does not matter I mean it does not matter to my extrapolation.

I don’t ignore anything you speak of above. It’s just that none of it makes a difference to my extrapolation because my extrapolation assumes no deaths other than those reported in the Beliaev study.

In essence the Beliaev study provides a crude body count of deaths due to refusing blood. By “crude”, I mean it does not include anyone who did, may have or likely died due to any circumstance or scenario other than the incidents of the Beliaev study. This body count only includes the known mortalities discovered in Beliaev’s study.

It is this hard count that is used against the population of New Zealand JWs that creates the ratio of deaths per capita. We can talk about alternate/unusual or unrecorded incidents/circumstances all we want and this hard count based on deaths discovered in the Beliaev study does not change.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“and what about people who need total BTs which has nothing to do with their 8dL count, such as I stated previously?

“What about the many circumstances of where BTs were needed but there wasn't the proper blood to administer.

“Does New Zealand have the exact number of JWs Per Capita as every other country in the world?”

Finkelstein,

Any attempt to include JW deaths due to refusing “total BTs” would only increase the number of JWs dead due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

Circumstances where blood transfusion is unavailable would equally affect mortality regardless of JW or non-JW.

The per capita of JWs to general population from one nation to the next is irrelevant to the study at issue. Why you think it relevant is something only you know.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“If its so understandably accurate and usable of a statistical model, why then does no one here agree with it.”

Coming from someone who does not understand that at-or-less than 8 dL means at-or-less than 8dL I think answering that question is unnecessary. Readers can make of this what they will.

Otherwise, do you dispute the patients whose records indicated they are deceased are…what? Relocated to another city in a secret patient relocation program?

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“However, they didn't report the number of patients in the 15-18 y.o. range (in either the 'BT' or the 'no BT' groups). There's no way to KNOW for sure how large these sub-populations were if it wasn't reported, which is critical to consider to avoid errors when extrapolating Worldwide.”

Does not matter.

Inclusion in the control group was dependent on honoring a refusal of red cell transfusion, whether that refusal came from a mature minor, parent, guardian, or a wooden Indian standing outside a saloon.

My extrapolation is of deaths due to refusing red cell transfusion.

My extrapolation assumes deaths due to refusing red cells transfusion outside New Zealand’s healthcare system is no greater than deaths due to refusing red cells transfusion inside New Zealand’s healthcare system. Given the state of New Zealand’s healthcare system, I think that’s a pretty conservative assumption.

Oh, and that question you asked is a red herring. Read.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“If you were to present this statistic in a court of law going against the WTS. would it uphold itself as evidence or would the lawyers for the WTS. succeed in completely smashing it to smithereens?”

The extrapolation would withstand criticism for this simple reason: It’s based on documented cases of mortality due to blood refusal and it makes conservative assumptions to avoid overstatement.

The latter is something you seem to overlook.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

"Marvin … Your comments in the previous post use heartfelt but emotive reasoning to bolster your research..."

Steve2,

Respectfully, what you write is presumptive assertion, and complete hogwash.

Not one word I’ve said above is presented as emotional bolster to my research. What idiocy!

My response you speak to was in answer to a specific question/comment from Simon. Guess what? My answer to THAT question is personal hence the only answer I could give is personal.

But that has nothing whatsoever to do with whether my extrapolation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine is somehow overstated or baseless. My extrapolation is based on data before me and assumptions necessary for any extrapolation. These assumptions are stated. These assumptions have not been demonstrated as anything other than conservative.

Now, if you don’t mind, stop with the presumption. I’d rather stay on topic. The topic is not my emotional state. All sane people have emotion. I’m no exception.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Again too narrow of base model .

“For example what about people who've suffered extreme blood loss due to traumatic accident or blood infection complications, where a total blood transfusion was required.”

Finkelstein,

That is the sort of response I don’t understand in this discussion. What part of at-or-less than 8 dL of blood don’t you get?

There is nothing narrow about it! If a patient had a blood count at-or-less than 8 dL and they were at least 15 years old then they were included.

Guess what that means? It means a trauma patient who’s at least 15-years-old and who’s lost enough blood that their count is at-or-less than 8 dL is included as suffering “extreme anemia”.

Guess what else that means? It means a trauma patient who’s at least 15-years-old and who’s not lost enough blood that their count is at-or-less than 8 dL is not included as suffering “extreme anemia”.

Marvin Shilmer